Mendocino, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

697
FXUS66 KEKA 292212 CCA
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Eureka CA
312 PM PDT Tue Apr 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Warm, dry, and calm weather will persist across the area
through Thursday. Light rain and cooler weather this weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

-Hot and dry weather building across the interior through Thursday
with highs in the mid 80s.

-Regular, shallow diurnal marine layer right along shore.

-Very slight chance (15%) of isolated thunderstorms over Lake County
late Wednesday afternoon.

-Cooler weather and light rain for the northern half of the area
this Wednesday.


WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: An upper level ridge and high pressure
will gradually continue to build across the area over the next few
days. For the interior this will allow for gradually clearing,
warming, and drying conditions. Temperatures will most likely peak
around Thursday wither interior valleys seeing highs peak in the mid
80s. There is, however, little chance (< 15%) of an highs of 90 in
populated areas. For the coast, a regular diurnal cycle of marine
stratus and fog is likely. High pressure will most likely compress
the marine layer, forcing fog and stratus closer to the surface
overnight.

The only chance of precipitation in the short term would be isolated
showers and Thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. While most areas will
remain dry, there is a slight chance (15%) of isolated showers over
the higher terrain of Lake County late Wednesday afternoon.

A narrow trough and surface low will skate down the coast during the
day Saturday. At the very least, this low will bring thick cloud
cover and much cooler and more moist conditions with highs in the
mid 50s. There is potential for wetting rain across the area though
any rain will be light. Most likely rainfall for the northern half
of the area will be 0.1 to 0.25 inches over 24 hours with just a
trace amount of rain further south.

The vast majority of model ensemble members show weak ridging and
high pressure returning Sunday through mid next week with another
trough setting up for later in the week. Gusty north wind will
return along shore particularly Sunday afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND DEVIATIONS: There is relatively little
uncertainty in the overall forecast. In the short term, the greatest
uncertainty is regarding the potential for isolated thunderstorms
Wednesday afternoon in Lake County. There is high confidence in the
CAMs regarding robust instability, the most uncertain variable will
be moisture. There is a very wide range in moisture potential, but
about 20% of models (particularly the convective models) show enough
moisture to generate isolated thunderstorms over high terrain. Any
storms that for would likely be mostly dry.

In the mid term forecast, precipitation this weekend is the area of
greatest uncertainty. The vast majority of models show only very
light precipitation, though a small contingent (10%) shows some
potential for rainfall over 0.3 inches along the North Coast. /JHW


&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR conditions are in place across the area. An
area of stratus moved into KCEC, this looks like it will quickly
move through the area, but confidence is low on this. This may
impact KACV as well, but confidence is low on this as well. There
are also some higher level clouds moving by to the north of the
area. There are gusty winds along the coast this afternoon and up
the river valleys. Winds are expected to diminish tonight. Stratus
is expected to return along the coast at least in some areas.
There is some offshore flow behind the system moving by the area
and this may limit the coverage of stratus. Any stratus that does
form should clear fairly quickly in the morning on Wednesday. MKK


&&

.MARINE...Northerly winds continue this afternoon, although they are
running a bit lighter than was previously expected. The small craft
advisories remain on track and have extended them into Thursday.
Wednesday night and Thursday winds diminish more significantly and
wind driven waves follow. A cold front may bring a brief period of
southerly winds on Friday. This will be shortlived and stronger
winds are expected to build back in Friday night and Saturday. These
are expected to peak on Sunday with gale force winds. Models have
come into better agreement on these gales so have trended the
forecast towards the GFS and above the NBM. Waves will remain
mainly wind driven. MKK


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ450-
     455.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Thursday for PZZ470.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PDT Friday for PZZ475.

&&

$$

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https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png